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GTAP Resource #3896

"Transitioning from short-term policies to long-term targets: cost-effectively limiting temperature increases to 2 degrees"
by Dellink, Rob, Jean Chateau, Bertrand Magne, Virginie Marchal, Jasper Van Vliet and Detlef Van Vuuren


Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the economic and environmental consequences of climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting long-term average global temperature increase to 2 °C, and contrasting that with the business-as-usual baseline projection. A combination of the ENV-Linkages economic model and the IMAGE biophyisical model is used to assess different emissions pathways to reach the long-term goal. To explore the feasibility and implications of achieving this target, three different scenarios for stabilising concentrations at 450 ppm by the end of the 21st century have been modelled. The main results of this analysis include:
 Without more ambitious policies, the Baseline projects that atmospheric concentration of GHG would reach almost 685 ppm CO2e by 2050.
 Emissions must peak before 2020 to reverse emission trends in order to stabilise GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e and have at least a medium chance of limiting temperature increase to 2°C.
 The analysis suggests that achieving the 2 °C goal would require establishing carbon prices that increase over time to 325 $/tCO2e by 2050. The cost of reaching the 2°C goal would slow global GDP growth from 3.5 to 3.3% per year on average, costing roughly 5.5% of global GDP in 2050. Given the huge scale of the problem it is essential that cost-effective policies are implemented.
 Keeping future technology options open is important as reliance on a single unproven techniology such as BECCS can be very risky, both in terms of costs as well as the chances of reaching the temperature goal.
 Delayed or insufficient action up to 2020 as resulting from the Copenhagen pledges could lead to 50% higher costs in 2050 compared to timely action, and potentially entail higher environmental risk.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2012
Version:
Created: Dellink, R. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Dellink, R. (4/30/2012)
Visits: 526
- Economic growth
- Climate change policy
- Dynamic modeling


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