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GTAP Resource #3947

"China and the world in 2030 – global dynamic scenarios"
by Maliszewska, Maryla, Hans Timmer and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The increasing interest in the dynamic models of the world economy, especially in the context of climate change has led to growing importance of the creation of a reliable baseline scenario depicting how the world economy might evolve over the coming decades. The analysis of any future policy responses relies on the comparison against the business as usual (or no policy response) scenario. The resulting policy recommendations depend to a large extent on the accuracy of the baseline scenario.

Forecasting the size and structure of the world economy so far into the future is a very uncertain exercise; this makes the need to provide a detailed account of the underlying assumptions and modeling parameters along with a thorough sensitivity analysis even more crucial to a meaningful debate among various researchers involved in the long term dynamic modeling. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing debate by documenting the construction of the baseline scenario for the World Bank study on “China in 2030” based on the Envisage model. The focus of this study is on China, but the modeling effort is global and aims to capture the likely developments in the world economy. A similar set of issues arises in designing a baseline for any country. A considerable attention has been paid to incorporate into the model the Balassa-Samuelson type of effects as we expect the price levels in China
(or in other developing countries) to approach the price level of developed economies as it reaches the high income status.

The paper presents several scenarios for the evolution of the global economy and China’s role in the world in the coming decades. Several striking features emerge from the scenarios.

First, we expect a further rise of developing countries’ role in the world economy along with the continuing importance of China. Rapid growth along with the appreciating exchange rates of developing countries will make them the main destination of world exports. The ...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Maliszewska, M. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Batta, G. (7/3/2012)
Visits: 2,960
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Dynamic modeling
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Baseline development

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