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GTAP Resource #3958

"The political economy of the Arab spring: a trade policy perspective"
by Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, Nassim Oulmane and David Laborde


Abstract
Beyond the social and political changes led by the 2011 Arab Spring, the new deal in the region may lead to reassess past choices in terms of trade policies and revisit a new agenda. With the demonstration of power done by a large share of the population in the streets and the dynamism of non state actors, it appears that the question of steady state and inclusive growth will be incremental and the question of redistribution and domestic inequalities will be carefully tackled by policy makers. Indeed, even government in open country that has scored significant economic achievement, such as Tunisia, has not decreased the high level of inequalities created by a non inclusive growth driven essentially by export activities (tourism, textile, call center…).

This paper aims to analyze alternative trade policy options for the Arab countries focusing on the redistributive impacts of these policies. To reach this objective, we use the MIRAGE_HH model that allows a full bottom up modeling of a large number of household categories within a multi country multi sector CGE. MIRAGE_HH is a version of the MIRAGE model of the world economy which includes household’s heterogeneity in order to studying the impact of trade reforms on real income and welfare at the household level. The model disaggregates the representative household up to 80-120 households by country. Among the different innovations and advantages of this model, we emphasize the role of having a consistent and homogenous analytical framework to compare the likely consequences of the trade policy option at the household level among countries.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Version:
Created: Sadni Jallab, M. (5/3/2012)
Updated: Sadni Jallab, M. (5/3/2012)
Visits: 794
- Middle East


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