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GTAP Resource #4074

"Trade-offs in water policy: System-wide implications in the Mediterranean economies by 2050"
by Roson, Roberto and Martina Sartori


Abstract
We evaluate trade-offs in water policy by estimating the structural consequences of water availability scenarios in the Mediterranean, following a bottom-up approach that includes two main components: (1) Assessment of future water availability and its impact on agricultural productivity; and (2) a general equilibrium analysis of changes in agricultural productivity.
The first step requires the estimation of scenarios of hydrological runoff derived from climate change scenarios, and the estimation of water availability for agriculture based on runoff. The idea is subtracting non-agricultural water uses from the total (plus possibly adding extra water supply like desalination or recycling). The elasticity of agricultural productivity to water is evaluated combining physical response by crops with realism about actual conditions in a large aggregate scale.
The climate scenario suggests that precipitation will generally decrease in the Mediterranean in the period 2000-2050, particularly in France (-13%), Morocco (-18%) and Tunisia (-10%). The average temperature is expected to increase of about 2°C.
Our approach estimates changes in water availability though a balance between water supply and demand. We start by taking into account the water balance at present time for several Mediterranean countries, that is the relationship between water supply (sources) and water demand (uses) for one average year. Among the supply sources we consider blue water, which is surface water stored in lakes, rivers, reservoirs, etc., and green water, which is embedded into the soil moisture (rainfed).
We explore four scenarios, depending on whether or not water productivity improves (in agriculture), and whether or not the EFR (Environmental Flow Rquirement) constraint is imposed on all countries (or just inside the European Union).
Six countries are found to have insufficient water resources, at the year 2050, to sustain current production levels in agriculture. Because of l...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version:
Created: Roson, R. (4/4/2013)
Updated: Roson, R. (4/4/2013)
Visits: 743
- Climate impacts
- Water
- Europe (Southern)


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