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GTAP Resource #4106

"Productivity growth at the sectoral level: measurement and projections"
by van Dijk, Michiel

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of policies related to food security, land use and climate change. A common approach is the construction of a baseline projection that describes the growth trajectory of the global economy for the coming three, five or sometimes even ten decades . A crucial element in these studies are assumptions on technical progress and productivity change, the key drivers of long-run economic growth and structural change and, hence, food security and land use change. However, despite their importance, these assumptions are often simplistic or not explained at all in most model studies. For example, it is frequently assumed that technological change is identical across sectors and countries, which is not in line with the empirical literature on innovation and growth.

The aim of this paper is to address these issues and improve the modelling of sectoral technical change in CGE models that are used for long-run projections and analysis. The paper starts with a brief review of the literature on economic growth and technical change, in particular focussing on sectoral trends of productivity development across time and space. In the core part of the paper, a new data set is used to construct productivity projections for 10 main sectors in the economy. The paper ends with conclusions and recommendations. Results of this study can be used as input for global and national CGE models, and perhaps even partial equilibrium in economic assessments of future growth.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version: 1
Created: van Dijk, M. (4/11/2013)
Updated: van Dijk, M. (5/21/2013)
Visits: 922
- Baseline development
- Technological change

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