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GTAP Resource #4108

"Development of a Shanghai CGE model and the application on forecasting the power demand in Shanghai"
by Li, Jifeng and Cai Songfeng

The forecasting of power demand plays an important role in energy forecasting, power system planning and economic development forecast. The "12th Five-Year" is a critical period of the transformation of economic development for Shanghai. To be an international economic center, an international financial center, an international shipping center and the international trade centre, Shanghai is at a cross of development. The uncertainty of development will lead to a big uncertainty of the power demand for the future in Shanghai. However, Shanghai power grid company, which is responsible to meet the power demand of Shanghai, have to reduce the uncertainty and forecast the demand in the future and then guide the construction of power grids and power plants during the 12th Five-Year period.
There are many researches about forecasting of power demand, but the use of a general equilibrium model (CGE) to carry forecasting of power demand from the perspective of economic development is relatively absent. CGE model is able to describe the linkage among industrial sectors and final demand to analyze the complex factors affecting the demand for electricity. However, to be qualified such work, CGE model must cover the detailed specialty of Shanghai economic system as much as we can, to grasp the relatively stable linkages between supplies and demands in all sectors; to simulate the accumulation of capital, labor force, foreign liabilities, also the progress of technologies improvement, and all other possible dynamic features.
Based on computable general equilibrium theory and the dynamic theory of Monash University of Australia, we establish Shanghai dynamic computable general equilibrium model (SICGE-SH) using Shanghai 134 sector input-output table in 2007. On the design of a single-zone model, we distinguish the source of inputs for domestic, import and regional inflow; Products whereabouts is divided into domestic use, export and regional outflow, and we did special trea...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Li, J. (4/12/2013)
Updated: Li, J. (4/14/2013)
Visits: 2,485
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate change policy
- Asia (East)

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