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GTAP Resource #4109

"Emerging Asia’s Growth and Domestic Policy Reforms: Implications for Indonesia’s Economy and Trade by 2030"
by Strutt, Anna and Kym Anderson

This paper explores how Indonesia’s production and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes in Indonesia and the rest of the world under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline from 2007 to 2030, assuming trade-related policies do not change in each region but that agricultural land, extractable mineral resources, population, skilled and unskilled labour, capital and real GDP grow or decline at exogenously selected rates. Given the relatively long time-frame over which we are modelling, we modify the standard GTAP agricultural product income elasticities for rapidly growing developing countries, along with Armington elasticities, to more appropriately reflect their likely values over this time-frame. The core projection of the world economy is compared briefly with an alternative baseline involving slower productivity growth in primary sectors (so that real international prices for primary products are well above 2007 levels by 2030, consistent with recent projections of international agencies such as the FAO, OECD, IFPRI and the IEA). Then the estimated effects of two alternative policy reforms are reported. One is an expansion of global rice exports associated with the opening of Myanmar. The other is the implementation of Indonesia’s new Food Law and the recently-imposed export taxes on numerous primary products. The final section draws out implications for the welfare of farmers and food consumers as well as for policymakers in Indonesia....

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Strutt, A. (4/12/2013)
Updated: Strutt, A. (6/8/2013)
Visits: 1,771
- Economic development
- Food prices and food security
- Asia (Southeast)

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