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GTAP Resource #4118

"A Note on Market Access Reforms in Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership"
by Burfisher, Mary, John Dyck, Amanda M. Countryman, Birgit Meade, Lorraine Mitchell, John Wainio and Steven Zahniser

This report quantifies the economic effects of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The study uses the GTAP model with the GTAP v8 2007 database, updated to 2014. Two scenarios were modeled to reflect developments between 2014 and 2025—the assumed implementation period for the TPP. The “baseline scenario” simulates projected growth in GDP and endowments, changes in diets, and the implementation of preferential and unilateral tariff reforms already committed to in the region. A “TPP” scenario adds a hypothetical, full elimination of intra-TPP tariffs and tariff-rate quotas to the network of trade agreements. The differences between the scenarios capture the effects of the TPP agreement on members’ economies in 2025.

The value of agricultural trade among TPP signatories will be 6 percent, or $8.5 billion, higher in 2025 under the TPP scenario than in the baseline (in 2007 U.S. dollars). Japan and the U.S. will account for the largest shares of the increases in intraregional imports and exports, respectively. The U.S. will supply about one-third of the expansion in intraregional agricultural exports— U.S. agricultural exports to TPP partners in 2025 is estimated to be 5 percent ($2.8 billion) higher in 2025 due to the TPP. Japan will account for almost 70 percent of the expansion in intraregional agricultural imports—the value of its agricultural imports from its TPP partners in 2025 is expected to be 14 percent ($5.8 billion) higher than the baseline.

By commodity, and in absolute value terms, the expansion of trade will be greatest for bovine meats (includes beef and mutton), “other food products” ( includes processed foods and feeds) and rice.

Elimination of tariffs and TRQs in the TPP scenario will have, at most, small positive effects on members’ real gross domestic product (GDP). Trade diversion will also be modest.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Burfisher, M. (4/12/2013)
Updated: Burfisher, M. (5/7/2014)
Visits: 2,976
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- Asia (Southeast)
- North America
- South America

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Comments (2 posted)
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Posted by: Zhou, Yangyang   6/8/2013 8:53:00 PM
Dear Dr. Mary Burfisher:
I am very excited to write to you ,I am a graduate of Renmin University of China. I had read your paper’s (《A Note on Market Access Reforms in Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership》)abstract. I am very interested in your topic and much hope to read your whole paper. Would you mind me get your whole paper before the GTAP Conference which will be hold in Shanghai. I am just a student and I promise to you I just want to learn from your paper and have no other purpose .I apologize for my poor English expression if it brings inconvenience to you. No matter what your reply is, I look forward and be grateful to your reply.
Best Regard
Zhou Yangyang

Posted by: Burfisher, Mary   6/9/2013 3:56:00 AM
Thank you for your interest in the paper. At this time, this paper is not yet available for distribution. We will post it on this GTAP site as soon as it is available.