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GTAP Resource #4125

"Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China"
by Tyers, Rod

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China’s economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world an improved terms of trade and cheaper finance. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward- sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available "inward" sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. Continued transformative growth is shown to be feasible though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services. These gains nonetheless require further openness and, even though the share of Chinese light manufactured exports would decline, global acceptance would be required of exported Chinese heavy manufactures. Failure to accommodate these would greatly limit China’s growth and force a return to a more primitive trading pattern that would also hurt the global economy more generally.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Tyers, R. (4/13/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/7/2013)
Visits: 1,097
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- Asia (Southeast)

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