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GTAP Resource #4142

by Lugovoy, Oleg and Vladimir Potashnikov

Elasticities of substitution are the key parameters in CGE modeling. However an estimation and validation of the parameters is not straightforward. One ways is to use a historical data. A data on technological shifts between types of fuels and capital and fuels, observed in the past, could be used to calibrate or econometrically estimate the elasticity coefficients. However, historical trends do not describe all the possible investment options which were available. Moreover such estimates will be based on investment decisions made in particular economic condition, available technological/investment options in the time of decision, and under existing policies. Using such parameters for evaluation of future policy options involves undesirable (and unavoidable) assumption that future technological options are equal or similar to those in the past. A variety of new technological options will be disregarded from the analysis.
In the paper we develop a methodology to estimate energy elasticity parameters for a nested CES production function involving “Bottom-Up” technological forward looking models. The bottom-up energy modes have an extensive representation of energy sector, they take into account currently available and expected technological options, but consider only part of an economy and lack connectivity with other sectors, f.i. do not provide a demand respond. Therefore their application is usually limited to the energy sector.
There are several attempts to connect the top-down (CGE/AGE) and bottom-up models known as “soft” or “hard link”. However both methodologies require significant reduction of the models’ scale or some compromise in connectivity between the models. The methodology proposed in the paper is another way of hybrid modeling where bottom-up model is required to calibrate parameters for a top-down model. As expected, the energy and energy-capital nests of a CGE model should provide results similar to top-down model.
In the paper we apply a m...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Lugovoy, O. (4/14/2013)
Updated: Lugovoy, O. (4/14/2013)
Visits: 871
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Not Applicable

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