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GTAP Resource #4161

"The expected effects of various trade policy scenarios on poverty in Senegal A CGE Micro-Macro Analysis "
by Bouët, Antoine, Elisa Dienesch and Cheickh Sadibou Fall


Abstract
There is an ongoing debate on the role of trade policies in alleviating poverty. Indeed trade liberalization is supposed to improve economic growth (Dollar and Kraay, 2002; Irwin and Tervio, 2002; Frankel and Romer, 1999). Focusing on poverty alleviation and income inequalities, the positive impact of trade is less consensual. Some works have defended the idea that trade integration implies poverty reduction (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 2002; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Anderson and Martin, 2005), but most recent studies have not reached this general conclusion, pointing that the link between trade and poverty can be puzzling (Winters, McCulloh and McKay, 2004; Hertel and Winters, 2006; Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2007; Harrison, 2007). According to these studies, trade policies bring contrasted effects on poverty but region or sector-specific conclusions can be done.

This paper aims at assessing the expected effects of trade policies on poverty reduction in Senegal. Especially, the main issue is to point out the distributional effects of trade policies among households, following regional, sectoral, occupational and skills features. Our study consists in building a single-CGE model, adapted to poor countries and doing counter-factual micro-simulation analysis to underline the income and distributional effects of tariff-reducing under different scenarios. Thus, in order to match with the Senegalese economy, our CGE-model framework arises from two main issues: treating households heterogeneity and modeling the labor market in order to reflect at the closest a dual-dual economy (Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). This concept refers to the double dichotomy between urban and rural areas and formal and informal sectors. It implies to distinguish urban from rural sectors and formal from informal activities.

To treat the first issue, we disaggregate households as most as possible, following all available criteria in the all set of Senegalese households surveys (ESAM I, 1995; E...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version: 1
Created: Bouët, A. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Bouët, A. (4/15/2013)
Visits: 721
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Africa (West)


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