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GTAP Resource #4181

"Climate change and its impact on global agriculture in 2050"
by Nelson, Gerald and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2013)
Updated: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2013)
Visits: 2,521
- Climate impacts

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