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GTAP Resource #4222

"Melting ice caps and the economic impact of the Northern Sea shipping lanes"
by Francois, Joseph and Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

A consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the
Northern Sea Route, connecting North-East Asia with North-Western Europe. This will represent a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and a decrease in the average transportation days by around one-third compared to the currently used Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of the opening of the Northern Sea Route. This includes a remarkable shift of bilateral trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic, and a substantial drop in traffic through Suez. These global trade changes are reflected in real income effects for the countries involved and moderate labour displacement for specific industries. The estimated redirection of trade has also major geopolitical implications: the reorganisation of global
supply chains within Europe and between Europe and Asia, and the highlighted political interest and environmental pressure on the Arctic.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version: 8apr2015
Created: Rojas-Romagosa, H. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Rojas-Romagosa, H. (4/8/2015)
Visits: 1,780
- Climate impacts
- Trade and the environment
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)
- Europe (Northern)
- Europe (Western)

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