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GTAP Resource #4229

"Malaria in Ghana: Integrated Macroeconomic and Epidemiological-Demographic Impact Assessment"
by Jensen, Henning Tarp, Marcus Keogh-Brown, Richard Smith, Michael Bretscher and Matthew Chico

The use of macroeconomic modelling including CGE is gaining momentum in the health field. There are many aspects of population health which have significant economic effects including workforce implications of morbidity and mortality effects, and public budget implications of prevention, treatment and care. In response to rising healthcare costs in most countries, a vast literature has emerged on health policies related to aging populations, epidemics, pandemics, and welfare-related illnesses. A particular line of published research has focussed on applying CGE models to assess the macroeconomic impact of epidemics (mainly HIV/AIDS). The methodology have, in most cases, relied on a recursive approach whereby an epidemiological-demographic model is applied to measure morbidity and mortality effects, which are subsequently imposed as shocks in the CGE model (e.g. Jefferis et al 2008; Thurlow et al 2009).
Whilst the standard recursive applications capture the direct macroeconomic effects of illness/improved health, feedback effects and interactions have not been captured in model applications to date. It is postulated that these interactions may be significant and, if correctly estimated, might lead to better informed decisions by governments and policy makers. One context in which interaction between demographics, economics and disease is likely to be important is that of malaria epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study will illustrate the importance of integrated frameworks for modelling of epidemics by constructing and applying an integrated economic-epidemiological-demographic CGE model of Malaria for Ghana. Focus will be on economic feedback effects to demographics and malaria transmission (through migration, better health conditions, and increased adoption of prevention measures).
Malaria is an important health concern in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, 216 million episodes of malaria were recorded worldwide, resulting in 655,000 malaria deaths. 81% of mal...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Keogh-Brown, M. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/18/2013)
Visits: 1,908
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Health

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This paper is draft. Future updates expected.

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