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GTAP Resource #4259

"An Economy-wide Impact Analysis of Low Birth Rate and Aging Population in Taiwan: A Dynamic GEMTEE Analysis"
by Lin, Hsing-Chun, Ching-Cheng Chang and Shih-Hsun Hsu


Abstract
Due to the problems of late marriage, not marriage, late birth, less birth and the length of life rising, low birth rate and aging population become an inevitable issue in Taiwan. According to the official statistics, the total birth rate already declines to 1.065 in 2011 in Taiwan and much lower than the substitute level in population. This phenomenon may cause the negative population growth or the trend in aging population to speed up.
The relationship between population growth and economic growth has been addressed, like Coale and Hoover (1958), Ehrlich (1968), Kuznets (1967), Simon (1981), and Kelly (1988). Some are optimistic, some are pessimistic and others hold a neural point of view. However, very few work address the effects of population structural change, esp. population aging on macro-economy. The purpose of this study is to bring into focus the baseline forecasting of population structure growth with low birth rate and aging. Moreover, their economy-wide impacts in Taiwan will be addressed.

In Taiwan, the evaluation or prediction of demographic trends mainly depends on the CEPD (Council for Economic Planning and Development). According to the Cohort-Component Method by CEPD (2012), we can forecast the population age structure between male and female. However, Cohort-Component Method is an approach which set economic variables as exogenous. Becker (1960) argues that birth rate is affected by economic factors. It seems more appropriate to take into account all necessary economic factors when we predict the population structural change.

In the literature computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has been used to analyze population aging and low birth rate issues. For example, Giesecke and Picton (2005) analyze the influence of population aging on health caring industry and macroeconomic system in Australia with MONASH dynamic CGE model.

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Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version:
Created: Chang, C. (4/30/2013)
Updated: Chang, C. (4/30/2013)
Visits: 915
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics


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