GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #4263 |
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"The Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Egyptian Agricultural Sector" by Abbas, Hoda, Awatif Abdelatif, Ahmed Qadry Bahloul and Mohamed Omran Abstract The gain to Rice producer is sufficiently large, producer surplus increases greatly to LE 95.2 billion and LE 100.35 billion under partial and full trade liberalization scenarios, while it increases to LE 11.05, LE 15.8 billion export promotion scenarios respectively. The loss to consumers is less than the gain to producers, therefore, national welfare as measured by the sum of producer and consumer surpluses increase to LE 35, 37.77, 99.06, 106.85 billion respectively under the reported experiments. Increased agricultural exports has an adverse effect on employment in agricultural sector. Employment declines modestly with both export promotion scenarios and partial trade liberalization by 10%, 14%, 14.8%, respectively from the solution with 1990 export bounds. Also results show that trade liberalization scenarios have great impact on recourse uses: cropped area increases modestly with export promotion scenarios to 13.36 million feddans, and increases greatly to almost 18 million feddans with trade liberalization scenarios. Shadow prices of land increases to 0.64, 0.43 LE/Cubic meter under trade liberalization scenarios respectively. In addition total labor revenues declines to LE 7.5, 7.2, 7.35 billion with both export promotion scenarios and partial trade liberalization scenario respectively, but increases modestly to LE 8.49 billion with complete trade liberalization scenario. The results summarized confirm that sector income, export earnings, hired labor income and national welfare (the sum of producer and consumer surplus) would change slightly in response to trade price fluctuations. The modeling analysis by GAMS shows that Egypt has gained not very much from rice policy reforms, but gained much from export promotion and trade liberalization policies. |
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- Calibration and parameter estimation - Dynamic modeling - Model validation and sensitivity analysis - Software and modeling tools - Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security - Africa (North) - Middle East |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
