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GTAP Resource #4341

"The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific"
by Kawasaki, Kenichi


Abstract
The progress of bilateral and multi-lateral regional Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) has accelerated since the beginning of 2013. The three largest advanced economies – the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and Japan – have launched negotiations on a giant triangle EPAs. In Asia-Pacific, the first round of formal negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was taken place in May 2013. Japan has joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations in July 2013.
This paper analyses the relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific. The economy-wide impacts of tariff removals and the reductions of non-tariff measures (NTMs) are estimated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade based on the most updated version of global trade and protection database (GTAP 8.1). In the model simulations, the dynamic aspects of trade liberalization and facilitation are incorporated; those include capital formation and pro-competitive productivity growth effects. Meanwhile, the actionable levels as well as the spill-over effects to the third countries of NTMs reductions are designed.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will be complements each other rather than the competitor of the other. The income gains of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies as a whole will account for 1.2 per cent of regional GDP by the TPP, 2.1 per cent by the RCEP, and 4.3 per cent by the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP).
Breaking down the source of macroeconomic benefits of the Asia-Pacific EPAs by the policy measures of the APEC member economies, it is shown that the contribution by China would be the largest followed by Russia and the US.
That said, in many ASEAN countries and others, contributions by own initiatives will be much larger than by trade partners including China and the US. Larger economic benefits are expected from NTMs re...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal; RIETI
Date: 2014
Version:
Created: Kawasaki, K. (3/28/2014)
Updated: Kawasaki, K. (6/26/2014)
Visits: 645
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (East)
- North America
- South America


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