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GTAP Resource #4351

"Economic Globalization, Global energy issues and Climate Change A Chinese perspective "
by Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem and Henri-David Waisman

The recent Rio+20 conference has demonstrated the difficulty to lay out a coherent roadmap forward for addressing global challenges in the framework of sustainable development.
This paper focuses on the twofold sustainability challenge caused by oil depletion and climate change in the context of socio-economic globalization. Beyond the agreed role of green measures to foster competitiveness of the Chinese economy in the short-term, we analyze the long term challenges posed to China by oil dependency and climate change under alternative visions of future globalization patterns.

The analysis of economic interactions is conducted using the energy-economy model IMACLIM-R: a hybrid multi-region, multi-sector CGE model that embarks sectoral expertise into a macroeconomic framework, providing a consistent vision of economic and energy trajectories. It relies on hybrid matrices ensuring consistency between money flows and physical quantities. For the calibration, the matrix is built by modifying I-O tables from the GTAP-6 dataset to make them fully compatible with the IEA energy balances (Mtoe) and passenger mobility (pkm). Dynamic trajectories are described in yearly steps through the recursive succession of static equilibria representing the second-best nature of economic interactions (including market imperfections and underuse of production factors) and dynamic modules representing the evolution of technical and structural constraints. Inertias on technical systems are represented and the model adopts adaptive anticipations so that agents take investment decisions according to the extrapolation of past and current trends.

Dynamics of oil markets are represented through the explicit description of geopolitical, technical and economic determinants on supply and demand side (Amount of reserves, geological inertias and short term price targeted by Middle-East producers).

Future globalization patterns are represented through par...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Hamdi-Cherif, M. (4/1/2014)
Updated: Hamdi-Cherif, M. (4/1/2014)
Visits: 2,337
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Asia (Southeast)

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