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GTAP Resource #4440

"How significant is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty?"
by Ahmed, S. Amer, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S Go, Maryla Maliszewska and Israel Osorio Rodarte


Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa is critical to the World Bank’s stated goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030. To achieve this goal, the region’s countries will require not just high growth but also growth that improves the incomes of the bottom 40% of its populations. For the coming few decades, Africa also has the potential to experience a demographic dividend from its changing demographics that can boost its growth, much as East Asia’s demographic changes in the 1960s and 1970s boosted its growth. A dynamic simulation analysis of potential African growth, assuming both a continuation of the good performance from the new millennium and the poor performance of the 1980s and 1990s, finds that the demographic dividend will be critical in boosting and sustaining growth and poverty reduction. Focusing on two particular channels by which the demographic dividend will affect growth in a given country – labor supply growing faster than the population and greater savings and investment – it is found that the savings and investment effect is more important than the labor effect for almost all countries. This is an important lesson since historically, savings and thus investment in the region has been challenge.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 0401414
Created: Ahmed, S. (4/14/2014)
Updated: Ahmed, S. (6/10/2014)
Visits: 819
- Demographics
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic growth
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)


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  File format GTAP Resource 4440  (1.2 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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