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GTAP Resource #4471

"The coming wave of educated workers: size and impact on global inequality "
by Bussolo, Maurizio, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, S. Amer Ahmed, Israel Osorio Rodarte and Delfin S Go

As 2015, the end-point date for the Millennium Development Goals, is approaching an important debate has started on whether a new set of goals and specific targets will be established and what these will look like. It may take some time to settle this debate but it is clear that, among the post-2015 goals, poverty reduction will still figure in prominently. In this context, the World Bank, in a reiteration of its mandate of ending poverty, has announced not only new poverty goals, but also a specific ‘inequality’ goal in terms of shared prosperity. Understanding the dynamics of inequality (within and between countries), the central objective of this paper, has thus been gaining a more central stage, as inclusive growth is now a goal in itself, and as the viability of the future global poverty target will depend on it. Globally, further reductions of the between country component of inequality will be possible only if more and more of the poorest countries will reach and maintain sustained growth rates. But this will help in achieving the new poverty targets only if the within country inequality component will also decrease or, at least, will not increase. In other words, prosperity will have to be truly shared. This paper contributes to the understanding of distributional change by providing a quantitative analysis of the recent patterns of the skill premium and of the forthcoming wave of skilled workers from developing countries on growth, inequality and poverty.

Distributional change is a complex phenomenon and there are many forces at work. This paper focuses on those forces that are more directly related to supply and demand trends in labor markets. On the supply side it considers: demographic shifts, improvement in education achievements and policies related to labor supply (such as increasing access to education, enabling inter-sectoral mobility, etc); and, on the demand side: technological change, sectoral pattern of growth, and trade (globalization)....

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Cruz, M. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Cruz, M. (6/13/2014)
Visits: 1,745
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Education

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