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GTAP Resource #4486

"Effects of a Green Revolution in Africa on EU-African Trade Relations"
by Dudu, Hasan, Cristina Vinyes and Emanuele Ferrari


Abstract
Africa, more specifically Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), largely missed out on the green revolution and hence is considered that the continent is long overdue for an agricultural boon like that lifted other regions such as Asia. Given this background, in this paper a global CGE Model is used to analyze the economy-wide effects of a potential ‘green revolution’ in SSA. Following many studies in the literature a potential green revolution is modelled as an increase in TFP, on the other hand, the uniqueness of this study is the introduction of the observed and desired yield changes (following past observed green revolutions such as in Asia) and let the model determine the required TFP change to attain these yield levels. Further, a stochastic yield change is introduced as a shock to the CGE model by using a Gaussian Quadrature approach. This way, instead of presenting only one point for a probable green revolution one can analyse the effects of a green revolution under a full spectrum of possible yield changes.
The preliminary results suggests that the effect on production is significant in all regions, however, it is clear that West a Africa is the region that best utilizes the green revolution to increase production and trade mostly through vegetables & fruits, and overall GDP and welfare rise, followed closely by SADC region.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 1
Created: Dudu, H. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Dudu, H. (6/18/2014)
Visits: 1,588
- Economic growth
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- Food prices and food security
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)


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Special Instructions
Preliminary version. Please do not quote!


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