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GTAP Resource #4510

"Contribution of biomass to emissions abatement under a global carbon policy"
by Winchester, Niven and John Reilly

What will large-scale global bioenergy production look like? We investigate this question by developing a detailed representation of bioenergy production and use in a global economy-wide model. To create market conditions favorable to biomass energy, we develop a scenario with a global carbon dioxide price that starts at $55 per ton in 2015 and rises to $217 in 2050, which results in a global bioenergy production of ~140 exajoules (EJ) in 2050. By comparison, in 2010 global coal energy was 139 EJ, oil 175 EJ, and gas 108 EJ. In our simulations, there is a short-term role for first-generation biofuels, but lignocellulosic biofuels are the largest component of bioenergy by 2050. This results reflects our assumptions that there is the most potential for cost-reducing technical advance in this process, combined with the fact that land requirements to grow cellulosic feedstocks are lower than for conventional crops. Biomass also competes favorably to supply industrial process heat. Even at this large scale, we find that land requirements for bioenergy production do not result in significant land-use change issues. The availability of biomass residues, increasing interests in limiting deforestation, and improvements in crop yields and efficiency in converting biomass to energy combine to reduce pressure on land markets.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Winchester, N. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Winchester, N. (1/23/2015)
Visits: 2,824
- Renewable energy
- Climate change policy
- Land use

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