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GTAP Resource #4516

"Patterns of Development. An Update"
by Garrido, Leonardo


Abstract
At the heart of any country, regional or global dynamic general equilibrium models (DCGE) such as World Bank’s MAMS (Lofgren et al, 2010) and regardless policy concerns that drive the definition and construction of a forward looking representation of the macro economy, one normally finds a core set of macro variables, which happen to be used in the empirical work on Structural Change to describe, under a cross country perspective, so-called long term development patterns; with the latter being defined as “systematic variation in any significant aspect of the economic and social structure associated with a rising level of income or other index of development” (Chenery and Syrquin, 1975).
In particular, a seminal work by these authors (Based on ideas previously put forth by Kuznets, 1960) finds empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis of a relatively uniform transition from underdeveloped to developed economies, which, in turn, are associated with a set of factors that include the changes in consumer patterns with the level of income; the need to accumulate physical and human capital to increase output; and, the access to common sources of technology and international trade. In the context of that work and subsequent updates (For instance, in Chenery and Syrquin, 1989), the authors were able to pinpoint so called “universal factors affecting all countries” and selected country specific and policy related characteristics that enabled a uniform characterization of countries in relation of their level of income per capita.
It thus becomes of interest to pose the question about how the dynamic behavior of the so called development processes yielded by long run simulations from DCGE models -for resulting paths of per capita income- relates to their average expected values, which, in turn, result from considerations on the universal factors and country specific characteristics that determine structural change. Such exercise can be of help for providing DCGE mod...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal; Leonardo Garrido
Date: 2014
Version: 1
Created: Garrido, L. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Garrido, L. (4/22/2014)
Visits: 544
No keywords have been specified.


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