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GTAP Resource #4627

"Plausible ranges of global food demand in the long run"
by Kavallari, Aikaterini, Susanne Rolinski, Benjamin Bodirsky and Hermann Lotze-Campen

The need for long-term projections of global food demand blossomed in recent years following the rising food prices and subsequent turbulences of world agricultural markets. Demand projections, largely driven by population and economic growth, show how food demand may develop in the future if population and income follow the assumed paths. These assumptions are, however, subject to revisions in regular time intervals. Also, future uncertainty allows for several quite different baseline scenarios (e.g. the SRES or SSP scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).The specification of the demand system and its parameterization can also affect the projections and can explain differences across studies up to a certain extent. There is consensus that for projections until 2030 or 2050 income elasticities for most commodities should follow Engel’s law and decline when income grows, whereas the type of food consumed can also depend on the level of income. For example, animal-based products can be normal goods at low income but may turn into inferior at high income levels, because consumers turn towards healthier and more sustainable diets. An endogenous determination of the parameters of the demand system helps to reflect alternative and updated macroeconomic assumptions in a systematic way.

This paper uses the multi-regional and multi-commodity partial-equilibrium model GAPS to look at how global food supply and calorie intake as well as food prices may evolve until 2050. The demand system of the model has been modified to allow for an endogenous determination of income demand elasticties following Engel’s law. Moreover, the shares of various food types are endogenously determined as a function of income. The scenarios considered take recent data sources and alternative socioeconomic pathways into account, as discussed above, while the results are discussed in comparison to the latest FAO long-term projections.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: Kavallari, A. (4/7/2015)
Updated: Kavallari, A. (4/7/2015)
Visits: 972
- Baseline development
- Food prices and food security

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