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GTAP Resource #4690

"Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?"
by Disdier, Anne-Célia, Charlotte Emlinger and Jean Fouré


Abstract
Two main regional trade agreements are currently under negotiation: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The former involves the United States and the European Union and deals with the removal of remaining tariffs and the harmonization of non-tariff measures, while the latter currently includes the United States and 11 other countries and focuses mainly on tariffs. Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both TTIP and TPP discussions. This paper first provides an overview of the current flows and trade barriers. Using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it then assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. Results suggest that the US have a huge interest in both agreements for its agri-food sectors, while almost all its partners would face risks, along with third countries -- among which Brazil, Argentina and EFTA are the most impacted. The two agreements however do not compete much one with the other, since all defensive and offensive interests of contracting parties are complementary. Our sensitivity analysis points that, while Atlantic trade could be significantly impacted by the inclusion of NTMs in a Pacific agreement, it would not be the case if TPP is extended to its potential members. Finally, among TPP members, only non-NAFTA exports toward the US would increase significantly in the case of a less ambitious TTIP.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Fouré, J. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Fouré, J. (7/8/2015)
Visits: 639
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- Asia (Southeast)
- European Union
- North America
- South America


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