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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4695

"An Assessment of Ebola-related Food Security Threat in Guinea"
by Fofana, Ismael, Sunday Pierre Odjo and Julia Collins


Abstract
Since the beginning of 2014, the West Africa region has been affected by an unprecedented Ebola outbreak, which has caused thousands of victims, mostly in three countries: Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. These countries have experienced tens of thousands of cases (confirmed, probable, and suspect) and deaths, as well as large numbers of people who have been in contact with a person sick with Ebola or displaced after the rapid spread of the disease during the second half of 2014. Other challenges have added to the health issues in these countries, namely the limited financial resources available to face the exceptional expenses related to the outbreak; higher transaction costs due to the disruption of transportation between the most affected areas and the rest of the country; border closures which have affected trade between these countries and their neighbors in the sub-region; and the reduction of air and maritime connections, which considerably impacts trade between West Africa – and more particularly, the countries most affected by the disease – and the rest of the world. Through its economic ramifications, the outbreak could have serious implications for the economies of the three most affected countries, according to a World Bank study. The implications of the outbreak on the food security and economic well-being of the population in these countries have been insufficiently studied.

Our analysis contributes to anticipating and reducing the risk of socioeconomic contagion of the health crisis. It uses microeconomic modeling of agricultural households and economy-wide modeling in order to simulate the impact of the epidemic on the national economy through various transmission channels. It highlights the relevance of these transmission channels through their effects on food security. The analysis focuses on Guinea, for which the underlying micro- and macro- economic data are accessible.

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Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Econometric Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Fofana, I. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/24/2015)
Visits: 1,490
- Economic crisis
- Health
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Africa (West)


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