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GTAP Resource #4701

"A macroeconomic modelling approach to estimate the burden of Alzheimer’s disease on the Chinese economy"
by Jensen, Henning Tarp, Marcus Keogh-Brown and Richard Smith

This study utilises a dynamic macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach to estimate the disease burden of Alzheimers Dementia (AD) on the Chinese economy between 2010 and 2050. Dementia is a syndrome due to disease of the brain according to the 2009 World Alzheimer Report (WAR09) (Prince & Jackson, 2009). It is usually chronic and characterised by a progressive, global deterioration in intellect including memory, learning, orientation, language, comprehension and judgement, and it progressively affects the ability to perform everyday activities. Whilst the illness is estimated to affect between 2-10% of those under the age of 65, dementia mainly affects older people and the odds-ratio is estimated to double with every five-year increase in age beyond 65. There are, currently, no treatments available to either halt or alter the progressive course of dementia (including AD).

AD is the most common type of dementia accounting for 50-75% of global dementia cases. While there is debate and uncertainty about proper diagnosis of AD (particularly regarding classification into stages), the most up-to-date estimates indicate that AD prevalence among the Chinese population aged 60+ has grown from 1.9 mio. (1990), to 3.7/5.7 mio. (2000/2010) (Chan et al 2013). The high and accelerating 2010 prevalence estimate exceeds previously estimated AD prevalence numbers for total “East Asia” (5.5mio) published in WAR09 (Prince & Jackson 2009), and thereby suggests that WAR09 projections of the future East Asia AD disease burden of 11.9mio (2030) and 22.5mio (2050) should be revised upwards by around 20% (Chan et al 2013). The predicted explosive expansion of the Chinese AD disease burden mainly reflects the ageing Chinese population, but also reflects evidence that age-specific prevalence rates may have been rising over time. If this continues, future Chinese AD projections may have to be revised upwards even further.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: Jensen, H. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Jensen, H. (4/14/2015)
Visits: 2,102
- Dynamic modeling
- Health
- Domestic policy analysis
- Asia (East)

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