Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
GTAP FAQs
Educational Materials
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4721

"Dutch Disease, Informality, and Employment Dynamics in Colombia"
by Arguello, Ricardo and Dora Jimenez


Abstract
From the first half of the 2000s until 2014 the Colombian economy was under the influence of an oil and mining production and export boom that triggered the potential for Dutch disease effects. This issue was at the center of important policy (and political) debates and merits attention due to its manifested and potential impacts on several dimensions of the economy. As the boom has the potential to induce shifts in the sectorial composition of the economy, it may have significant effects on employment dynamics and on the evolution of the employment intensity, especially when the informal sector is sizable. We study the potential effects of this boom, had it extended as forecasted until 2014, before the sudden drop in international oil prices in 2015. For this, we use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, calibrated to a 2011 Social Accounting Matrix of the Colombian economy, in which activities are differentiated in terms of their formal and informal components, and suitable details are included to account for the stream of income the government receives from the booming activities. We find that resource shift and spending effects from the boom are sizeable, leading to a relative drop in exports of non-boom sectors and to shrinking output for most sectors of the economy, while employment in the formal sector and for skilled workers is favored. Furthermore, we find that the policy package designed by the Colombian government to face potential Dutch Disease effects on the economy, has limited impact for ameliorating the resource shift and spending effects.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Arguello, R. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Arguello, R. (6/1/2015)
Visits: 472
- Dynamic modeling
- Domestic policy analysis
- South America


Attachments
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.


Public Access
  File format GTAP Resource 4721  (717.7 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.


Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.


Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.