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GTAP Resource #4786

"INFORMATION FOR POLICY MAKING: NUMERICAL EXAMPLES OF POVERTY IMPACT OF TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS IN ETHIOPIA USING A MINIATURE 124 MODEL AND BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE CALCULATIONS"
by Evans, H. David, Niyati Ghelani and Gustavo Ramirez


Abstract
Typically, CGE models are large and complex, so that presentation of the essential results for policy makers is challenging. This paper combines two pieces of work carried out by the authors on Ethiopia. First, the well-known 123 minature CGE model (one country, two factors, three commodities) is rejected because it does not have a non-traded good, an unfortunate omission since eg about 1/3 of GDP in Ethiopia is non-traded. Our paper on a diagrammatic and mathematical exposition of a 124 miniature CGE model (one country, two factors and four commodities) is use to develop a diagrammatic presentation of the key results of a typical single country CGE model. Second, we have available a paper on a 22-commodity comparative static CGE model of Ethiopia based on historical data, including a decomposition of the poverty results for each of the policy experiments. This paper uses large historical terms of trade shock to the 22-commodity comparative static model to help flesh out diagrammatic versions of the 124 model and bote (back of the envelope) results including decomposition results. The bote summaries are in the spirit of Dixon and Rimmer as aids for understanding model results for practical policymaking, complementing our earlier decomposition of the poverty impacts by policy experiment in the 22-commodity Ethiopia CGE model.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Evans, H. (4/15/2015)
Updated: Evans, H. (6/10/2015)
Visits: 678
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Africa (East)


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