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GTAP Resource #4790

"Shared Socio-economic pathways and global income distribution"
by van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

The international modeling community focused on the analysis of climate change and working in concert with the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been developing a new set of long-term scenarios for future socio-economic and climate pathways. Past practice in scenario development saw a sequential process that started with specifying socio-economic developments (demographics, economic growth, technological change, etc.), the associated emissions of greenhouse gases, other relevant emissions and land-use changes. The socio-economic and emissions projections were largely undertaken by the economic modeling community, or integrated assessment modelers (IAMs). The emission pathways were fed into the climate models that produced future scenarios for the climate—focused on temperature and precipitation. The third community of modelers, the so-called IAV, or impact, adaptation and vulnerability community, use the climate signals to assess the impacts of climate change on economic activity, livelihoods and the environment, at various spatial scales. At the beginning of the planning of the latest IPCC assessment report, the 5th (AR5), the three modeling communities agreed to a new process for developing integrated scenarios. In a first stage, the climate modelers (CM) were tasked with developing an ensemble of climate scenarios that focused on four potential climate signals as captured by radiative forcing that would span the range of plausible outcomes in 2100 and were themselves sufficiently distinguishable. The resulting four climate scenarios are now known as representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the four scenarios are designated as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 corresponding respectively to a radiative forcing in 2100 of 2.6w/m2, 4.5w/m2, 6.0w/m2 and 8.5w/m2. One key objective of this initial phase is that it would provide the IAV community with a relatively early set of results, which could readily be used for IAV an...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2015)
Updated: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2015)
Visits: 1,826
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Not Applicable

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