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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4800

"MODELLING THE IMPLICATIONS OF A LOW-CARBON EUROPE FOR EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION"
by Wilson, Rob, Tony Meagher and Hector Pollitt


Abstract
In 2010, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 strategy aimed at achieving smart, sustainable and inclusive growth over the ensuing ten years. As part of that strategy, the EU sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels, to increase the share of renewable energy sources in final energy consumption by 20%, and to reduce energy use relative to projected 2020 levels by 20% (the so-called ’20-20-20’ environmental targets). The strategy also included an employment target, namely, to increase the employment rate for the population aged 20-64 to 75% by 2020 (compared to 68% in 2011).

In 2013, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Education and Employment released a report on Skills for a low-carbon Europe (Cedefop, 2013). In this report, feasible scenarios for achieving the EU 2020 policy objectives are devised, and a combination of quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) approaches used to investigate the expected impact of the policies on employment by industry and occupation. The quantitative analysis proceeds by first developing a baseline case, and then assessing the impact of two policy-driven scenarios relative to the baseline. The first introduces a sustainable energy policy mix which achieves the EU environmental targets. The second introduces additional policies which achieve the employment target as well. Comparative forecasts are determined for employment in 33 industries in each of 33 countries using the E3ME macro-econometric model of the European economy. Employment by industry is converted into employment by occupation (9) and employment by level of educational attainment (3) on the assumption that the occupational shares within industries, and the attainment shares within occupations, remain constant.

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Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Version:
Created: Meagher, T. (4/16/2015)
Updated: Meagher, T. (4/24/2015)
Visits: 278
- Labor market issues
- European Union


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