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GTAP Resource #4897

"How to Reach 40% Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Road Transport by 2030: Propulsion Options and their Impacts on the Economy"
by Nylund, Nils-Olof, Saara Tamminen, Kai Sipilä, Juhani Laurikko, Esa Sipilä, Kari Mäkelä, Ilkka Hannula and Juha Honkatukia


Abstract
In this study we identify new transport technology options that could result in a 30 or 40% reduction in the road transport sectors’ carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Finland by 2030 compared to the reference year 2005. In addition, we analyse the economic costs associated with each of these options with VATTAGE AGE model in order to find the most cost-efficient way to reduce the emissions in road transport. The analyses focus only on possible technology and propulsion options. The analyses are joint work with a group of engineers, other technical experts and economists.

First, a baseline scenario was created to facilitate the comparison of the economic results and to see how much road transport CO2 emissions might decrease without any intervention policies. Based on it additional measures are required to achieve a 30% or even 40% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030. Second, in total nine “technology specific scenarios” and a combination scenario including different technologies were developed in order to assess the technological possibilities to reduce road transport emissions and the economic impacts of reducing emissions with different technological options. The following propulsion technology options were assessed: drop-in biofuels, ethanol, (bio)gas, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles and hydrogen (fuel cell electric vehicles).

According to the AGE results, the economic impacts of the different technology scenarios vary greatly and based on them the most cost-optimal solution seems to be investing in domestic production of drop-in fuels and biogas to reduce road transport emissions in Finland. With these technologies a 40% drop in CO2 emissions can be reached. While these results are Finland specific, the methodologies for assessing the technological potentials and economic impacts of reducing road transport emissions are recommended for use also in other countries.



Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA; VTT Research Report
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Tamminen, S. (4/6/2016)
Updated: Tamminen, S. (4/6/2016)
Visits: 1,874
- Dynamic modeling
- Bioenergy
- Climate change policy
- Europe (Northern)


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