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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4908

"Demographic contraction in China: long run implications for the global economy"
by Tyers, Rod


Abstract
Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China’s reform and policy agenda are set to rebalance the economy toward consumption while maintaining a rate of GDP growth near seven per cent. Among the headwinds it faces is a demographic contraction that brings slower, and possibly negative, labour force growth and relatively rapid ageing. While the lower saving rates that result from consumption-oriented policies and rising aged dependency may contribute to a rebalancing of the economy, in the long run they will reduce both GDP growth and per capita income. Moreover, while an effective transition from the one-child policy to a two-child policy would help sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which embodies the main channels through which fertility and saving rates impact on economic performance. The results quantify the associated trade-offs and show that continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectory of the global economy as well.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Tyers, R. (4/8/2016)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/7/2016)
Visits: 600
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Asia (East)


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  File format GTAP Resource 4908  (2.5 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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