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GTAP Resource #4954

"Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison"
by Gillingham, Kenneth, William Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Geoffrey Blanford, Valentina Bosetti, Peter Christensen, Haewon McJeon, John Reilly and Paul Sztorc


Abstract
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Gillingham, K. (4/14/2016)
Updated: Gillingham, K. (4/14/2016)
Visits: 505
- Baseline development
- Climate change policy
- Technological change


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  File format GTAP Resource 4954  (2.3 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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