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GTAP Resource #5068

"On the impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Poverty and Shared Prosperity"
by Cruz, Marcio and S. Amer Ahmed

Changing population age-structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the shares of their population that are of working-age, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and poverty reduction. However, the sensitivity of growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity to these changes is unclear. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect growth and saving and estimates the association between changes in the share of working age population with growth and savings. In addition, the paper examines the implications of changes in age-structure on poverty and shared prosperity. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to boost GDP per capita by more than one percent with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Created: Cruz, M. (4/15/2016)
Updated: Cruz, M. (6/10/2016)
Visits: 1,049
- Demographics
- Economic development
- Economic growth

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