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GTAP Resource #5234

"Biome composition in deforestation deterrence and GHG emissions in Brazil"
by Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento and Mark Horridge


Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the Brazilian commitments to COP21 under different scenarios, with a general equilibrium model of Brazil developed for land use change and GHG emissions analysis. The model is dynamic, inter-regional and bottom-up, and distinguishes in the present version 16 regions and 6 biomes. Our scenarios consider different hypothesis about future deforestation, including the halt of illegal deforestation, the restoration of 12Mha of forests, and substitution of deforestation in the Amazonia biome to deforestation in the Cerrado biome. Our analysis show that only the restoration of 12 Mha of forests would be enough to meet the country´s commitments in 2025 with no other extra GHG savings efforts, but not in 2030. Exchanging deforestation in the Amazonia biome for deforestation in the Cerrado biome would seriously compromise the accomplishment of the targets. We notice that the emissions in the general economy are increasing in Brazil, suggesting that other efforts will be made to meet the COP21 targets.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Version:
Created: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/11/2017)
Updated: Ferreira-Filho, J. (6/2/2017)
Visits: 1,231
- Land use
- Economic growth
- South America


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