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GTAP Resource #5285

"Evaluating the Trade Impacts of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopath (BSE) Using Historical Simulations "
by Peterson, Everett and Jason Grant


Abstract
In December of 2003, the US Secretary of Agriculture announced the presence of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) within a cow in the state of Washington. The announcement prompted the stoppage of beef imports by some of the US’s largest traditional beef trading partners, resulting in sizeable losses to industry. While this was the first confirmed case of BSE reported in the United States, the international policy response was significant in nearly every major U.S. beef export market. NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada opened their markets to U.S. beef rather quickly following the announcement. However, other markets – including many of our top export destinations such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China - remained closed for much longer periods and China’s market continues to remain closed today. In this paper, we develop a partial equilibrium model of global meat production and trade. Using this model we first develop a historical simulation over the period 2001 to 2013 to capture the observed impacts of the BSE outbreak on global meat trade. Then we construct a set of counter-factual experiments that adjusts the changes in preferences and technical change in the historical simulation to attempt to determine what meat trade would have looked like if the BSE outbreak had not occurred.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA; Center for Agricultural Trade, Virginia Tech
Date: 2017
Version:
Created: Peterson, E. (4/14/2017)
Updated: Peterson, E. (10/10/2017)
Visits: 1,338
- Agricultural policies
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Asia (East)
- North America
- Oceania
- South America


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