GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #5392 |
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"How Domestic and International Policies Affect the Outcome of Climate Change On China's Grain Production? A CGE Model Analysis" by Xie, Wei and Tariq Ali Abstract The impact of climate change on crop production is often assessed via crop models or filed experiments. However, when considering the special role of domestic and international policy in this area, the impact of climate change will present a different outcome. For example, less government interventions can help transmission of the climate change shocks much easily to farmers and international traders who will adjust their behaviors and reduce the negative impacts of climate change. This study uses GTAP model to reflect those behavioral changes and to assess the economic impact of climate change on China’s crop production. First, we derive the changes in crop yields in China and major trading countries directly from the results of the crop model study under different emission scenario. Second, we use GTAP model to simulate how farmers can change the crop acreage after perceiving price changes (due to climate change) and then affecting the impact of the disaster; how international traders adjust their trade volumes after comparing the prices of crops in different countries, then affecting China's domestic agricultural prices, consequently changing the behavior of farmers and ultimately changing agricultural production. Our study shows that after considering the changes in farmers and international traders’ responses, the effect of climate change on crop production is reduced. Variations in production level mainly depend on the extent of farmers’ ability to expand crop sown area and the severity of government intervention in agricultural exports. It can be seen that in order to reduce the impact of disasters on food supply, it is necessary to give full play to the role of market mechanisms and to reduce government intervention in trade. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Calibration and parameter estimation - Model validation and sensitivity analysis - Climate impacts - Trade and the environment - Asia (East) |
| Attachments |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  ImpactofCConagricultureandinternationaltradeinChina_2017_Mar_16 (506.2 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
