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GTAP Resource #5477

"CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE COLOMBIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: PRODUCTION AND FOOD PRICES"
by Romero Torres, Bernardo and Andres Escobar


Abstract
Most of the research done in the field of climate change concludes that it is happening and increasing at an excessively high rate. The average temperature of the earth’s surface has increased 0.8ºC during the last 100 years, most of this increase happened during the last 35 years (National Research Council of National Academies, 2012). The main features of climate change have been increases in natural disasters, such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, melting ice and heat waves (IPCC, 2013). It is expected that, in a scenario without mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions, the surface temperature will increase between 2.4ºC and 6.4ºC at the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2007).

They also conclude that agriculture is strongly influenced by climate. Global warming will have significant impacts such as decreasing land productivity, increased land surface temperature, sea level rise, amount of carbon dioxide in the ozone, thawing of polar caps, droughts, alterations in precipitation patterns, and the interaction between all of these components. The impact of climate change on agriculture is determined by the balance between these effects.

Colombia is a country with an important agricultural sector, capable to boost growth, ensure the supply of food for the entire population, and its capacity for job creation, faces the challenge of climate change. This research is conducted in order to assess the effects of climate change on the Colombian agricultural sector. The main objective is to determine the effects of climate change on prices, agricultural production and its distributional outcomes in Colombia through a standard Static Computable General Equilibrium model (Hertel, 1997) by calibrating the GTAP model for the Colombian case in three sectors and three factors of production with the RunGTAP program and GTAPAgg 8.1. The simulations scenarios consider the presence and absence of climate change. .


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2018 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia
Date: 2018
Version: 1
Created: Romero Torres, B. (4/9/2018)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/10/2018)
Visits: 229
- Calibration and parameter estimation


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