GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #5535 |
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"Trade impact of BRI: a quantitative prospective study" by De Soyres, François, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta Abstract The goal of this paper is to analyze the potential consequences of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) on the reallocation of production across countries and to quantify the associated impact on trade flows at the sectoral level, GDP and welfare. Focusing on the effect of shipping time reduction associated with transport infrastructures, we first use a combination of geographical data and network algorithms to compute the reduction in shipping time between all country pairs in the world. We then use Hummels and Schaur (2013) sectoral estimates of "value of time" to transform reductions in shipping time into reduction in ad-valorem trade costs. Finally, we propose a model similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) which provides a tractable and simple model for trade policy. Coupled with the solution method based on relative time differences, it presents the advantage that regardless of the number of sectors and how complicated the interactions between sectors are, the model can be reduced to a system of one equation per country. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the BRI is associated with an average welfare increase close to 3% with significant dispersions across countries and sectors. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Non-Tariff barriers - Preferential trading arrangements - The GTAP Data Base and extensions - Asia (East) - Asia (South-Central) - Asia (Southeast) - Europe (Eastern) - Middle East |
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Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
