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GTAP Resource #5539

"Structural change and changes in materials use: a baseline analysis"
by Bibas, Ruben, Jean Chateau, Rob Dellink and Elisa Lanzi

Recent decades have witnessed an unprecedented growth in demand for resources. This has sparked increased interest from policymakers in a transition to a more circular economy (CE). The focus of this paper is both methodological and topical. On the methodology front, the issue at end is how to repurpose the existing modelling tools to account for materials and the choices between virgin and recycled materials. Then, this paper provides an outlook on the future growth of materials use linked to multiple baseline scenarios.

In this context, such modelling tools are only recently emerging. There is no single commonly accepted definition of the term “circular economy”, but different definitions share the basic concept of decoupling of natural resource extraction and use from economic output, i.e. increased resource efficiency as outcome. This paper focusses on the design of baseline scenarios for materials use in the absence of new policies. This will provide internally consistent, and globally connected scenarios for the degree of circularity of economies as they evolve over time, and the main sectors and materials where resource efficiency and circularity policies should be aimed. Doing so involves i) creating up-to-date socioeconomic projections that reflect the main drivers of economic growth and materials use; ii) an analysis of recent historical trends on decoupling of materials use and economic activity, to identify plausible assumptions on decoupling in future projections; iii) the construction of baseline projections that describe materials use in the future in absence of new policies under various assumptions about future trends.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2018 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia
Date: 2018
Created: Chateau, J. (4/14/2018)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/16/2018)
Visits: 1,128
- Dynamic modeling
- Trade and the environment
- Economic development

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