Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
GTAP FAQs
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5652

"Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A specific factors CGE analysis of an agri-food import ban"
by Boulanger, Pierre, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari and George Philippidis


Abstract
In August 2014, Russia imposed a one year import ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate the effects of this retaliatory policy on Russia itself, the European Union (EU) and a selection of key trade partners. Sensitivity analysis of factor mobility is performed to characterise the short- and long-term response to the disruption in trade, whilst a carefully designed baseline is implemented to correctly isolate the economic impacts of the ban.
In the short term, due to high factor immobility, production has very little leeway to adjust, provoking notable variations in prices which absorb most of the import ban shock. At the EU level, price and production decrease by about 1.9% and 0.3% respectively, while in the longer term (if the ban is maintained beyond one year) the corresponding estimates are 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest welfare loss (about 3.4 billion euros) while the EU recovers around 25% of its lost trade volume with Russia through expansion of exports to other markets.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Published
By/In: Journal of Agricultural Economics
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Philippidis, G. (4/24/2018)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/24/2018)
Visits: 1,401
- Baseline development
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- Europe (Eastern)
- European Union


Attachments
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.


Public Access
No documents have been attached.

Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.


Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.


Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.