GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6008 |
|---|
|
"Systemic risks of trade liberalization in agriculture under future climate change: lessons learned from computable general equilibrium model" by Kunimitsu, Yoji and Gen Sakurai Abstract Extreme fluctuations of food prices in the global market, caused by the global synchronized production shocks due to climate change, may decrease the stability of food supply source portfolio through agricultural trade, like systemic risks in financial markets. This study aims to quantify the degree of systemic risk in the agricultural markets under future climate change and evaluate the effects of trade liberalization when systemic risk exists. Simulation analysis, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on harvest predictions from crop model and global climate model (GCM), suggests the following. (1) In rice, which has the largest synergistic effect of output fluctuation, the output synergy was significant in combinations of trading countries with more than 40%. (2) This synchronicity of yields increases fluctuations in agricultural production and agricultural price by 22% and 84%, respectively. (3) Although trade liberalization can alleviate the vulnerability of agricultural production under climate change, in countries with large imports of agricultural products, such mitigation effect on price fluctuation by trade liberalization declines due to systemic risk. Therefore, by taking into accounts the systemic risk under future climate change, it is necessary to examine the true effects of agricultural trade policies and prepare countermeasures in advance. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
- Baseline development - Climate impacts - Trade and the environment - Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security |
| Attachments |
|---|
|
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper (281.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Presentation file GTAP Resource 6008 (1.7 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
| Comments (0 posted) |
|---|
|
You must log in before entering comments.
No comments have been posted. |
Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
