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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6077

"Comparing Trade Balance Closures in the GTAP-Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model Framework"
by Yuan, Wen and Mary Burfisher


Abstract
This paper explores the importance of macro closure rules governing the balance of trade and foreign savings in the results of model simulations using a recursive dynamic, multi-country CGE model. It first presents a stylized shock in which a single country experiences a total output productivity shock, and compares results when global capital is assumed to move across regions until expected rates of return are equalized, versus a closure that fixes regions' real trade balance. Results between the two closures differ in magnitudes and in many cases differ in sign as both macro and micro adjustments occur to accommodate the alternative closure rules. After illustrating these mechanisms, the paper provides a simulation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, comparing selected results under two closure rules. Results signal the importance of understanding the macroeconomic policies being pursued by a country and reflecting those in the appropriate choice of trade balance closure.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2020 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2020
Version:
Created: Yuan, W. (4/15/2020)
Updated: Yuan, W. (6/9/2020)
Visits: 486
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Multilateral trade negotiations


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  File format Paper  (710.2 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format Presentation  (487.9 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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