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GTAP Resource #6141

"Estimating the Economic Impact of COVID-19: A Supply Side Analysis"
by Narayanan, Badri and James Villafuerte

Using a static simulation of a standard GTAP model, the paper analyzes the effects of : 1) increased trade costs from border restrictions; 2) reduced productivity from lockdown and community quarantine; and 3) enhanced health care services and subsidy to consumers and producers from the Government. Two scenarios were explores, the first a short containment scenario where the outbreak is controlled within 3 months with limited impact on tourism receipt, consumption and investment growth, and production disruption; and a second a longer containment where the outbreak is controlled within 6 month with deeper impact on tourism receipts, consumption and investment growth, and production disruptions. The simulation results that the global impact of COVID-19 ranges from $2.5 trillion to $4.9 trillion or -2.8% to 5.4% of GDP. The impact for Asia is about half of the global impact or from $1.2 trillion to 1.9 trillion or -3.7% to -5.8% of GDP.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2020 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2020
Created: Villafuerte, J. (4/17/2020)
Updated: Villafuerte, J. (6/14/2020)
Visits: 3,155
- Dynamic modeling
- Health
- Technological change

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  File format Paper  (620.1 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format Policy Brief  (2.6 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format Policy Brief Appendices  (576.3 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format Presentation  (2.8 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)

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