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GTAP Resource #6353

"The way forward: the impact of future trade policies on global trade patterns"
by Metivier, Jeanne, Eddy Bekkers and Marc Bacchetta

International trade relations are at a crossroads. Following a decline in worldwide activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, continuing social and environmental challenges, and increased disagreements about a range of trade policies, the decisions about future trade policies will have a large impact on the future of global trade. This study presents four directions for future trade policy: regional co-operation (benchmark), revival of multilateralism, plurilateral cooperation, and geopolitical rivalry. The first scenario is the business as usual scenario: countries continue on their path of increased co-operation in regional trade agreements. The second scenario constitutes a revival of multilateralism. In addition to reductions in remaining tariffs, this scenario models reductions in trade costs associated with NTMs in both goods and services. The third scenario is characterised by plurilateral cooperation. Under this scenario, varying groups of countries cooperate on specific topics, such as data and e-commerce, services, and labor standards. The last scenario introduces geopolitical rivalry. Under this scenario, two main blocks emerge: US and its allies, and China and its allies. International cooperation breaks down between blocks, leading to an increase in tariffs and non-tariff barriers, with blocks of countries setting up their own set of rules. To operationalize these four scenarios, we employ existing estimates of ad valorem
equivalents of various trade policies, membership of the WTO, and the presence of FTAs and develop our own estimates where necessary

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2021
Created: Metivier, J. (4/15/2021)
Updated: Metivier, J. (6/25/2021)
Visits: 862
- Dynamic modeling
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Non-Tariff measures in services

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Posted by: Metivier, Jeanne   4/15/2021 1:44:00 PM
Preliminary draft