GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6578 |
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"The economic consequences of declining demand for Australia’s fossil-fuel exports" by Hodges, Cedric Abstract This paper explores the potential economic impacts of declining demand for Australia’s fossil fuel exports under the global effort to keep global warming well below 2°C. Fossil fuel use will need to decline rapidly to achieve this goal. However, it remains to be seen what effect this will have on Australia’s exports. We don’t try to determine the likely trajectory for exports. A Sector-specific model, which has richer bottom-up detail, would be best for this. Instead, we take some decline as a given and explore different scenarios (in terms of severity), focusing on the flow-on consequences for the Australian economy. We begin with a version of the popular ORANI-G model, which has a long history in Australian policy analysis, has been adapted to many other country settings and is well documented and freely available. We first calibrate this model to the latest available Australian data. We then build on the core version of the model so that it can incorporate heterogeneous households and multiple labour types. As has been found with other work that has introduced heterogeneous agents into an economy-wide framework, the aggregate impacts mask a set of quite different responses across the household and worker types - with important implications for policymakers seeking to aid the transition. Subsequent research will seek to extend this analysis to incorporate oligopolistic competition and increasing returns to scale in Australia’s fossil fuel producing industries. |
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- Model extension/development - Climate change policy - Domestic policy analysis - Labor market issues - Migration |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper (20.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
