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GTAP Resource #6621

"International trade, dietary change, and TB control in India: Application of a fully-integrated macroeconomic- epidemiological model framework"
by Jensen, Henning Tarp, Marcus Keogh-Brown, Anna Vassal and Tom Sumner

We apply a newly established fully integrated macroeconomic-epidemiological-demographic model framework for India to analyse the impact of eliminating import tariffs on the macroeconomic and health burdens of tuberculosis (TB) in India over 2021-2040. We find that full tariff elimination will increase Indian NPV GDP by 103bn USD (or 2.93USD/person/year), but also that this covers a larger NPV GDP efficiency gain of 119bn USD combined with an NPV GDP TB health-related loss of 15bn USD. Hence, in spite of efficiency-related expansions of NPV GDP and NPV household income and consumption, substitution in household consumption away from less expensive sources of kcal’s, including cereals and processed rice, and towards consumption of more expensive sources of kcal’s, including meat products and edible oils, implies that Indian households will experience increasing prevalence of the low BMI risk factor for TB, and therefore also experience increases in TB incident cases (˜9.5million) and TB case fatalities (˜1.3million), as well as increasing excess deaths (˜1.1million) and declining population levels (9.2million person-years) over 2021-2040. Overall, we find that there is a trade-off between macroeconomic efficiency and TB clinical outcomes when it comes to pursuing an import tariff elimination trade reform. We also find that, in spite of increasing income and consumption levels, Indian low-income households will experience adverse distributional impacts including a relatively small expansion of NPV household consumption, and excessive adverse impacts on population demographics including population levels and excess deaths, and on TB-related clinical outcomes including TB incident cases and TB case fatalities. Hence, we find that import tariff elimination trade reform in India is likely to involve both adverse overall health impacts as well as a worsening distribution of household consumption opportunities and increasing inequities in TB-related health outcomes.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2022 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2022
Version: 1
Created: Jensen, H. (4/15/2022)
Updated: Jensen, H. (6/6/2024)
Visits: 476
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Model extension/development
- Health
- Asia (South-Central)

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