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GTAP Resource #6644

"National and Regional Economic Impact of Changes in the Electricity Mix in Germany: A Dynamic Analysis up to 2050 "
by Jafari, Yaghoob, Karlo Hainsch and Thomas Heckelei


Abstract
To meet the net zero emission target by 2045, Germany has planned to phase-out coal from electricity production by 2038 but increase the production of electricity from alternative sources through technological advancements. We examine the impacts of these planned activities on CO2 emissions, electricity security, and economic output at both the national and regional levels using a regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the global economy with linkages to the middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway. Our results reveal that phasing out coal from the electricity mix significantly reduces electricity generation and increases imports but slightly reduces electricity supply and economic output. The reduction in CO2 emissions in Germany is significant, and the distribution of the economic output across regions is widening. An important reason for the contraction of economic activities is that the reduction in electricity generated from coal, that is, base load electricity, reduces economic output, which in turn reduces demand and the output of peak load electricity. This impact suggests the need for alternative measures to increase base load electricity generation capacity and the consumption efficiency of electricity. The additional EU-wide technological advancements slightly reduce the impacts, with no significant reduction in CO2 emissions.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2022
Version: 1
Created: Jafari, Y. (4/15/2022)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/25/2022)
Visits: 107
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Climate change policy
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Domestic policy analysis
- European Union


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