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GTAP Resource #6652

"Subnational projections of income and poverty for Ethiopia: A dynamic spatial microsimulation approach"
by van Dijk, Michiel, Marijke Kuiper, Thijs De Lange and Jason Levin-Koopman


Abstract
This study presents a spatial dynamic micro simulation model, which can provide income, poverty and inequality projections at the subnational scale. The Spatial Simulation of Income Dynamics (SSID) model, combines household survey data with subnational projections on key drivers of income, including demographic change, urbanization and shifts in skills and occupation to simulate how the distribution of income might change under different socio-economic futures. To account for structural economic change and the impact of global shocks, SIDD also incorporates wage and price projections from a global general computable equilibrium model. To illustrate the model we provide an application to Ethiopia, one of the largest countries in Africa in terms of population size, which is characterized by high poverty levels and deep inequality. We used SSID to project changes in income distribution and the poverty headcount for 60 different zones (administrative level 2 regions) and three different socio-economic scenarios between 2018 and 2050. The scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, which are often used for climate change assessments and describe sustainable, business-as-usual and fragmented worlds.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2022 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2022
Version:
Created: van Dijk, M. (4/15/2022)
Updated: van Dijk, M. (6/10/2022)
Visits: 459
- Model extension/development
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Africa (Central)


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